I recently discussed the ability to use implied volatility to calculate the probability of a successful outcome for any given option trade. To review briefly, the essential concepts a trader must ...

Discover how probability distribution methods can help predict stock market returns and improve investment decisions. Learn to assess risk and potential gains.

Market expectations for the coming year can roughly be chopped into three, all of them hinging on central banks. The most likely, or median outcome--call it a one standard deviation probability, which ...