Some economists are predicting that US recession risk is rising, and a downturn could arrive before the year is out, but the supporting data to date is still thin. The recent slowdown in hiring could ...

With one exception, this monthly indicator has correctly identified more than a half-dozen recessionary bear market bottoms after 1929. Multiple recession-probability indicators, along with the ...

Over long periods, Wall Street is a money machine that's handily outperformed the average annual returns of commodities like oil and gold, bonds, and bank certificates of deposit. But on a ...

The Duration metric measures the probability of whether a stock's bull trend will continue based on statistical distribution of durations. The Magnitude indicator measures the probability that a bull ...

As I write this, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen below 3.8% as global markets tumble on growing recession fears. Investors rushed into the perceived safety of government debt after Friday ...

Since the recent US government shutdown may prevent the release of the October inflation and labor market data, inflation proxies are considered here to assess what the Fed would do next. September's ...